Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Trump won the other 18 counties. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. 2023 BBC. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. 2. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Outstanding. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. That's 14 in a row. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. 6. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. But it's still indicative of widespread support. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Outstanding. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Not a bad streak. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. It's happened before. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. University of Denver, 2. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. In their . It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. What results did you discover? Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Have you looked at the results of these counties? Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Ron Elving . Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. The matters that way on their minds are real. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Telegram Telegram "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Free and open-source. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Not anymore. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. 7. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. 10. Contributors wanted This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. 3. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Hillary Clinton (578) This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Joe Biden (631) So, where are the bellwether counties? If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday.

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